I recently heard a mastermind summary on the investor’s podcast, 311. It was full of great master thinkers. They had a lot of great points about the situation, our government, and the global picture. Please find the link below:
I provided some of the key points divided into topics for this great conversation.
- Market Cell off liquidity event
- Another market liquidity sell-off will most likely happen, could be delayed by another stimulus package. It could also happen if people lose faith in the currency.
- This year retail sales have been up, and income has been higher for the middle class due to the money printing. The median consumer hasn’t felt the recession yet.
- We will have a system reset, whether through currency losing trust and value or unwinding the debt bubble. We will have a repricing event, whether we have the stimulus or not.
- It’sIt’s a high chance the government eventually switches to universal basic income and running with modern monetary theory. Infinite money printing will eventually lead to revolution, and a system reset.
- Bitcoin
- Currently, bitcoin is only 1/20% of global assets. If companies and hedge funds allocate just 1%, what would happen to the price?
- The first companies to allocate would most likely be the tech companies. If that happened, don’t be surprised if the government starts pressing them for being a monopoly.
- The government would have a hard time creating a complex coin to replace it. Bitcoin has much more adaption. Free market complicated cryptos are having a hard time with complexity; how could the state develop crypto to meet their needs in time? It’sIt’s already too late based on the network effect and adaption.
- Inside boardrooms, they are already talking about bitcoin allocations.
- If the fed creates its a cryptocurrency, it is bullish for bitcoin because bitcoin is scarce. Most likely, the feds crypto will be an infinite amount.
- There would be a game theory between the countries if they tried to ban bitcoin. For example, some countries embrace it, and typically banning a scare asset leads to negative assets. The sample period was negative-yielding treasuries in the 30s and 70s when gold was illegal.
- Gold
- Countries like Russia and China are already accepting trade-in more gold or commodities versus US treasuries.
- Gold won’t most likely become an SDR (special drawings rights created by the international monetary fund – In the system currently, we settle transactions in dollars, this is a neutral currency).
- Gold will become more adopted as commodity-producing (typically oil) countries will begin accepting less currency for trades and want their payments in gold or other commodities. It will be a gradual adaption; the states won’t declare it.
- Why would they want a 0% treasury that can be printed infinitely versus a zero percent gold bar with a limited supply?
- A gold standard most likely wouldn’t be adapted because governments would have to raise taxes and cut spending.
- Dollar
- Governments tend to go with the status quo and aren’t incentive to raise taxes and stop the money printing. We are putting the currency at risk.
- An international SDR doesn’t seem like a feasible solution because China and the US aren’t getting along.
- A strong dollar will lead to more inequality due to it making US exports more expensive.
- When the dollar falls, other countries print their money to make their currency less valuable. This makes them more competitive in trade. China and Europe have done this frequently. Therefore most countries will not be able to stop printing.
- Technology is deflationary, so no matter what the fed does if we don’t fix the system, we will continue to allocate capital poorly, and the pain will continue.
- If we go to negative rates, people will lose trust in the dollar.
The twitter handles for everyone in this conversation: