Life isn’t like chess; it’s like poker. Annie Duke goes over in her book Thinking In Bets how random chance affects our life everywhere. We don’t get linear results based on our plays like chess; we have random probabilities based on our hands like in poker. The mistake is we focus on the result instead of the decision process. If we focus on the decision process, we can help make better decisions with higher probability outcomes; repeating our lives will more than likely improve.
Redefining Wrong – not knowing is okay.
In our world today, we tend to think if someone doesn’t know that they are wrong. We shouldn’t focus on the result but the decision quality. Thinking of the odds and allocate our resources effectively.
Everything is a bet – We should consider the risks, the opportunity costs, upside, and other alternatives in every big decision we make. We have a blindspot bias based on our pre-existing beliefs. The best way to trigger a rational portion is by asking, “wanna bet.” This way, we activate our rational brain to think of the ranges and probabilities. We tend to believe in right and wrong, in black and white. We don’t use all the shades of green in between. Remember that there are shades of gray, and we see the world based on our pre-existing beliefs, not on what is true. When thinking about something you believe is true, say a range of 0-10 on how confident you are? This helps detach you from beliefs, makes you more believable, and others more likely to bring up other information.
Time Travel with the 10, 10, 10 method
The 10,10, 10 method was one of the most valuable lessons I learned from the book. When you are making a decision, think time travel, past or future. How would I feel today if I made this decision 10 minutes ago, 10 months ago, 10 years ago? What are the consequences of my decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years? Will I care? This will help taper down the emotions in the heat of the moment.
As humans, we have all types of biases and existing habits. When we think of bets, we can’t guarantee a better future, but we can highly increase our odds to get there.